UPDATE: I have updated my prediction in this blog post.

To say that I’m obsessed with the presidential election is a vast understatement. I have followed the campaign process on both sides since Obama and Clinton first announced their runs back in January of 2007.

I feel ready to predict, based on close observation of the polls and baring some major development on either side in the coming weeks, how this election will play out.

Given Obama’s steady lead in the polls and McCain’s increasingly erratic campaign, it seems almost inevitable that Obama will win this election.

This first map shows my prediction for how the election will play out. In this scenario Obama will pull all of the states where he has had a lead for several months, including Colorado and Minnesota. The real “battleground states” in this election are shaping up to be Virginia, Florida, and Ohio. In these three states Obama and McCain are neck and neck, though recent polling shows Obama pulling ahead in Virginia and Florida.

The next scenario is what I consider to be the “Realistic Landslide Scenario.” In this one, Obama adds Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, and Indiana to his roster of wins. In each of these states there are only a few points separating the two candidates, and strong performances in the remaining debates could see this scenario develop on November 4th.

In my next scenario, Obama loses all three of the remaining battle ground states: Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. He can still win the presidency even if this happens. The key to his victory will then become holding his leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and pulling ahead in New Hampshire. If Obama loses the three battleground states, then he MUST win the other states listed on this map in order to pull off a solid victory.

My final scenario presents a very possible tie that could happen on November 4th. If Obama loses the three battle ground states AND New Hampshire (where he and McCain have been statistically tied for months) then the election could tie in the Electoral College. This scenario would make for great political theatre, but let’s hope that it doesn’t happen.