We’re one week out from the presidential election and it’s time for an update on my predictions. I made my last round of prediction three weeks ago and a lot has changed since then.

Luckily, the tide seems to have turned in Obama’s favor after the presidential debates. Based on recent polling, primarily from Pollster but also from other sources online, I am now predicting an Obama victory of 367 to 171 in the electoral college.

Moving into the Obama category since my predictions three weeks ago: North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and North Dakota. Three weeks ago North Carolina, Ohio, and Missouri were toss-up states with a slight lean toward McCain, but since those predictions Obama has widened his lead. His most significant gains have been in Ohio and Nevada where he now has a solid lead over McCain. His lead in Missouri and North Carolina are very close and could still tilt either way.

The surprise in these additions to the Obama map is the addition of North Dakota, a state that was solidly red three weeks ago but is now showing a three point lead toward Obama. Polls in North Dakota show a sharp and rapid decline of support for McCain following the debates. If Obama wins North Dakota, it will be the first time the state has gone blue since 1964.

Following this trend there are three more states which are now considered “toss-up” states that were solidly red just three weeks ago: Georgia, South Dakota, and Montana. Obama’s gain in these three states is most impressive. Recent polls show him gaining sharply in these states, but in my unprofessional opinion I can’t see him closing the remaining gap in the next week. If he stands a chance with one of these states, I would predict he ‘might’ flip Montana—which is on the verge of having two democratic senators and a democratic governor.

So where does this leave McCain? The McCain camp is focusing most heavily on Pennsylvania and Virgina, both former toss-up states that are leaning toward Obama. For McCain to survive, he must win three out of four of these states: Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.

So, should you vote in this election given where the polls are? YES! Of course you should! The only way Obama will lose this election is if his supporters become overly confident and just stay home next Tuesday. Though he is currently leading McCain in states by a ration of 3:2, many of these states are holding by just a couple of percentage points. Obama supporters must turn out the vote in order to make this election a reality.

And now, a brief history lesson: