THE FIVE SENATE RACES TO WATCH
Just days before the general election all eyes seem to be locked on Barack Obama and John McCain. Every move by the candidates, their VP nominees, and their staff is scrutinized.
I believe it’s critical that we elect the best candidate for President (surprise—I’m for Obama), but the media blitz surrounding the presidential election has overshadowed some critical congressional races that are also underway.
I truly believe that in order for Obama to enact his ambitious energy, education, economic, and military agendas he will need a filibuster-proof Senate.
The magic number is 60 (or a 3/5ths majority). Currently, there are 37 Democratic seats which are not up for re-election, 15 seats that are considered “safe,” three seats which are leaning Democratic, and five toss-up seats.
The focus of this post is those five toss-up seats. Here are the candidates that need to win in their respective states in order for the Democratic party to have a firm Senate majority:
1. Mark Begich, Democrat, Alaska
Begich is the mayor of Anchorage, Alaska’s largest city. He believes in energy independence, ending a failed policy in Iraq, and providing a middle class tax cut to working families. Running against disgraced Senator Ted Stevens, who was convicted on seven felony counts earlier this week, one would think that this election would be a no-brainer, but the closeness of this race illustrates just how unique the political climate in Alaska really is and just how deep the special interests in the state are entrenched.
2. Bruce Lunsford, Democrat, Kentucky
If Democrat Bruce Lunsford manages to unseat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday it will truly be one for the history books. Before the economic crash, McConnell’s seat was not considered even remotely in danger. But now, four days from the election, polls show Lunsford and McConnell in a dead heat. Let’s be clear about this, no Republican Senator has benefited from the special interests more than Mitch McConnell. His record on the economy, the war, and social issues is deplorable. This is the senate race that the rest of the nation should be watching.
3. Al Franken, Democrat, Minnesota
Al Franken is currently locked in a nasty up-hill race with incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman (who served as St. Paul’s mayor back when he was a Democrat). Franken is one of the most progressive candidates running for office on Tuesday. The former SNL alum and Air America host is progressive on social issues, energy independence, universal healthcare, middle-class tax breaks, and ending the war in Iraq. Frankly, I’m just looking forward to “Live from D.C., IT’S THE SENATE FLOOR!!!”
4. Ronnie Musgrove, Democrat, Mississippi
Watching Ronnie Musgrove’s campaign ads reminds me of some of the ads we are seeing from the other side of the isle—particularly Gordon Smith’s ads in Oregon which show the Republican Senator with leaders of the Democratic Party. Musgrove’s attack is gentle, and points to just how deeply entrenched the GOP is in the South. Still, the race between Musgrove and Roger Wicker (who replaced Trent Lott in 2007) is a dead heat. The battle seems to be taking shape mostly over the economy and gas prices.
5. Jim Martin, Democrat, Georgia
Democrat Jim Martin is running a tough campaign again incumbent Saxby Chambliss. Martin’s campaign is focused on cutting government spending, restoring the economy, and providing middle class tax breaks. He is currently polling just behind Chambliss, but an increase in the state’s African-American vote (brought on by Obama’s unexpected popularity in Georgia) is working to Martin’s favor. This is a tight one, but could be the key to the Magic 60.
Also to watch:
Democratic Candidate Kay Hagan of North Carolina is running a very tight race against incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole. Dole’s response to this formidable candidate has been to release some of the most vitriolic and deceitful ads in recent political memory. Still, the tide is turning in the Democrat’s favor and those Republicans who will survive this sea-change are the ones will be able to divorce themselves from the Republican leadership of the last eight years. Unfortunately for former presidential and first-lady candidate Elizabeth Dole, she is simply too entrenched to shed that image this late in the game.
Democratic candidate Jeff Merkley of Oregon also seems to have benefited the recent economic downturn. When we moved to Oregon in July, Merkley was facing an uphill battle against popular incumbent Gordon Smith. Unfortunately for Smith, recent events and Obama’s strong support in the Portland/Salem/Eugene areas are working against his re-election. Merkley is a progressive’s democrat, so I am excited to have him represent me. But Gordon Smith is also a model Republican, progressive on social issues and a moderate Republican on economic issues. He’s the type of middle-of-the-road candidate that the GOP will need to emulate in the next election cycle if the tide turns as sharply against them as it is projected to in this election. Unfortunately for Smith, history is just not on his side this go-around.
REMEMBER, ALL OF THE PUNDITRY AND PREDICTIONS ARE MERELY THAT. IF YOU WANT TO SEE A TRUE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF THIS COUNTRY YOU MUST GET OUT THE VOTE NEXT TUESDAY. FROM CITY COUNCIL TO THE OFFICE OF PRESIDENCY, VOTING IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY AS A CITIZEN AND THERE’S SIMPLY NO EXCUSE FOR NOT PARTICIPATING




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My elections class had an entire discussion based around the House and Senate races this morning… from that, we established:
4 tossup races that favor Democrats (OR, NC, MN, MS)
3 closer tossup races in which GOP candidates are losing their leads (GA, AK, and good ole’ KY)
Most importantly, though, is the uncertainty of black turnout in several of these close races (MS & GA)… we’re in for one hell of race no matter what.
by Kyle at 10/31/2008 #