We are now a week removed from the historic presidential election of 2008. So far I have refrained from discussing the election results here because I am waiting for the dust to settle before I speculate about what this change movement actually means.

But, I would be remiss not to point out that on the eve of the election I called the election results more accurately than evil mastermind/overlord Karl Rove. First the predictions and results.


Karl Rove’s Prediction: Obama 338 vs. McCain 200



My Prediction:Obama 367, McCain 171



Actual Results: Obama 364 vs. McCain 173



How Rove Got it Wrong: Rove’s predictions were generous by a conservative’s standards, but he still managed to miss the final tally in Obama’s favor by 27 electoral points. His mistakes, calling Indiana and North Carolina for McCain while also overlooking the 1 electoral vote picked up by Obama in Nebraska (a state that awards its electoral votes by congressional district rather than all-or-nothing).

How I Got it Wrong: I overestimated Obama’s final win by 3 electoral points, even though I called three states incorrectly. I predicted that Obama would pick up North Dakota and Missouri, while doubting a victory in Indiana.

My North Dakota prediction was fueled by wishful thinking. A Democrat has not significantly won in the center of our nation (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas) since 1964 (In fact the only Democratic win in that section since 1964 was Carter’s Texas win in 1976). Polling in North Dakota in the last two weeks of the campaign showed a surge of Obama support and I wrongly hoped that support would be enough to flip the state.

Missouri was always a toss-up, and the state is still technically uncalled (with both Obama and McCain garnering 49% of the popular vote). The result of this state came down to well under 1% of the vote.

The true surprise in this election is the ultra-white, conservative state of Indiana which awarded 11 electoral points to Obama. This is the first Democratic win in Indiana since 1964. I am proud of this change, and certainly never imagined that a black Democrat with progressive roots would be the man to finally flip that state.

I also overlooked the 1 electoral point awarded to Obama in Nebraska, so I guess, technically, Obama did make some progress in that “red core” of the heartland.

So, Now What? The game of political polling is over—at least for two more years. I have greatly enjoyed this election and I’m optimistic about the voter turnout and enthusiasm that Obama’s campaign has fostered, but now the time has come to lay down the campaign cards and get to work.

The change that Obama wants to bring about will be countered by a crumbling economy, three wars (why does everyone forget the global ‘War on Terror’?), the falling dollar, America’s lost prestige on the world stage, crumbling infrastructure, and many more unfavorable parting gifts of the Bush regime.

I only hope that ‘we the people’ remain engaged in the political process the way that we have been throughout this campaign. Afterall, it isn’t seeing your team to the playoffs that’s most gratifying. It’s seeing your team win the game. With his election Obama is now in the championship game, and he has 4-8 years to win this for us all.

Final thought: When you look at the election results by county rather than state, it becomes clear that Democrats made significant gains in almost every state of the union this year. And THAT is truly worth celebrating.